The four stages of the early adopter curse
As an early adopter, be it technology, culture, way of life or anything else, you inevitably meet the “early adopter curse”. I’ve been though it with immersive tech and AI. In fact, I’ve just recently been denied funding for LLM-research based on the fact that I couldn’t cite “that many” LLM-papers in inpatient-care research. Which is a strange catch 22 to experience. I can’t do research because there is not enough research? The last time I experienced it was trying to do research with AR, and not getting anywhere because there was a lot of anti-AR bias in 2013!
It is frustrating and made me think of the early adopter curse!
Through my early adopter years I’ve discovered the four distinct phases any early adopter goes through.
Stage 1: Nobody know what the heck I’m talking about and I look ridiculous
In this stage, it is impossible to have constructive conversations with anybody that does not share your niche knowledge and experience. At this stage you are more likely to be struck by lightening than to get funding. This is the stage at which you find that group of strangers who also are early adopters and you build some form of network where you complain about early adopter problems. You also take the risk of looking ridiculous by wearing the gadget in public. Most of those problem will be solved a few years down the line when either society or technology has left it’s alpha-testing/kick-starter phase but in the place you are now, it feels like it will never happen.
Stage 2: Have you heard of this…..
It’s been about 2–3 years and now at least some people are joining this trend. Journalists write articles about this “novel” thing. Most of the articles are about how “fresh” and “cool” the thing is, but completely ignores the struggles that come with its novelty, like tons of bugs, lacking features and often very horrible interface and the fact that the company making the product is still in a strange “what is this product” phase. It frustrates you to no end because you’ve spent months on debugging, and reporting errors to the product owner and you know that a poor consumer will soon have this item in their hand that is an absolute dumpster fire of a product. Or, you are insanley happy that the product that has been enriching your life, will soon enrich the lives of others. It’s a mixed bag of emotions.
Stage 3: This influencer is using it
It’s been five years and the charm has worn itself out for you, and just when you’re about to move on to the next early adoption, a flood of interest is being thrown at the thing an everyone including the influencers who only have used it once are suddenly experts on it. A lot of old issues are resurfacing and 7 year old concepts are being re-packaged right in front of your eyes.
Stage 4: Screw this, I’m moving on
Just when the world is raving about the “thing” be it an IoT solution, service or tool, you’ve had your cycle with it and you’re not only done with it, you are frustrated that the product isn’t farther ahead. Since you are bored by it, you don’t write about it.
Since you don’t write about it, or experiment with it, you look like you’re not keeping up with the times, so paradoxically you look like you’re a non-adopter.
That is because you’re already on to the next buzzword, that won’t be a buzzword for about 3–5 years and the cycle starts over again.
